Asian Miracles and Climate Change

One may introduce a concept of Hawking irreversibility as the point where temperature has risen so much that the global warming consequences threaten the survival of mankind. The recent news out of China that its CO2s are increasing again makes this term highly policy relevant. Moreover, the methane emissions have started to augment, which also calls up Hawking irreversibility. The drive behind these dire developments is the endless zest for affluence and wealth, fueled by ever larger energy consumption. Asian miracle economies should take this warming seriously and srart the implementatuion os COP21 Treaty.


Introduction
Climate scientists warn, already before the implementation of the UNFCCC Agreement from Paris 2015 that the decarbonisation plan decided in global governance will not be enough to stabilize temperature at + 2 Celsius, at most.Global average temperature will most probably be larger than the COP21 objective.At what point on the temperature scale, we move into Hawking irreversibility is not known.But a rise beyond + 4 degrees will have dramatic consequences for the ecology and human social systems.
A few days before the start of the UN global environment reunion COP23 (6-13 November 2017) in Bonn, the major study Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment (USGCRP, 2017) https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/4174364/Climate-Science-Special-Report-2017.pdf) was published in Washington.It examines the global warming problematic from the point of view of the US and the world, based upon years of research by a large group of US scholars.It definitively recommends a combination of national and international policy-making to halt temperature rise, despite the fact that the US government is negative.It renders an impressive list of climate change impacts upon the US territory and points decisively at human causes.We must then ask: Can decarbonisation policies be implemented or managed?The COP23 by the UNFCCC reflects upon the very same problem.
The Asia-Pacific region has taken over economic leadership from the Atlantic region.Some 60 per cent of global GDP comes from the APEC countries.And the Asian members plus India plan large increases in energy consumption up to 2040, but they show little interest in the greenhouse emission problematic, at least not in real action.
All countries in the world have formed a common pool regime (CPR) to save the atmosphere from more GHGs, focusing only upon the CO2s.The global decarbonisation plan includes: These are enormous goals, as only one country -Uruguay -is near GOAL I and GOAL II.Can they be implemented?Will the Asian miracle economies implement them?ase in This ing a

Present
We will derive examples of future increase in methane concentration due to such a positive feedback, in addition to a linear approximation.For this, we will not simulate differential equations, which would be the best option, but simulate the hypothetical solution of a transition (bifurcation) between 2 steady-states, with a S-shaped function (which approximate the bifurcation between 2 steady-states) multiplied (to have continuity) by the linear approximation.We shall approximate the S-shape curve by an transitory (5 years) exponential curve in continuity with the linear approximation.
The present (November 2017) quasi-linear curve starts mid 2013 (2013.5)and its ordinate is approximately 1813 ppb.We will use as a last value at start of 2017 (2017), and the function is approximately 1846 ppb. a straightforward calculation gives the slope: it is approximately 10 ppb/year.Therefore the equation for the future curve if there is no vicious circle (positive feedback) is: (2) y = 10 (t -2013.5)+ 1813, where t is the time when one wants to know the CH 4 concentration, and y is the future CH 4 concentration in ppb.From this equation, one can estimate the approximate the temperature rise due by methane, by applying to y the formula (1), and multiply it by 25.It will be valid for close future, but will probably be underestimated for farther future, where it will probably closer to an exponential.
Diagram 1. Projected increase in methane

Management Strategies for Decarbonisation
The UNFCCC suggests a decentralized management strategy for decarbonisation.Reflecting the enormous differences in available energy resources in the member states of COP21 Treaty, each government must develop a strategy for achieving Goal I, Goal II and Goal III.The COP may wish to concentrate upon the following measures start credible decarbonisation: 1) Phasing out coal power plants; convincing a few countries like India and Australia not to build new ones; 2) Replace wood coal with natural gas -small or large scale, stopping deforestation and the use of charcoal in households in poor nations; 3) Turn some countries away from massive dam constructions towards solar power parks, like Brazil and India, as the environmental damages are too big; 4) Help some countries maintain their huge forests: Brazil, Indonesia, Malaysia, Russia, Kongo, India, etc; 5) Abstain from expensive and unsafe carbon sequestration techniques in favour of electricity: solar power and electrical vehicles.
6) The promise of financial support -Super Fund -has to be clarified about both funding and budgeting.A management structure has to be introduced for oversight of the entire decarbonisation process.As the emission of methane increases, the reduction of CO2s is all the more important, if irreversibility is to be avoided with a margin.
7) The resort to atomic power plants is highly contested.Nuclear power gets safer and safer, but the problem of storing the used uranium has no solution.If global warming becomes really bad, all these radioactive materials could be released back in our social systems and nature.Some countries expand atomic energy, whereas others dismantle it.
8) Massive construction of solar power and wind power plants in all countries, as well as stimulate small scale solar power; Solar power parks: How many would be needed to replace the energy cut in fossil fuels and maintain the same energy amount, for a few selected countries with big CO2 emissions?Table 1 has the answer.The United States has pulled out of the deal; (Note 2) No absolute target; (Note 3) Pledge is above current level, no reduction; (Note 4) Upper limit dependent on receiving financial support; (Note 5) EU joint pledge of 40 % compared to 1990

Conclusion
We are not yet at the point of Hawking irreversibility, meaning there are still a few degrees of freedom for government policy-making and international governance.The plans of the UNFCCC must be implemented by all nations: Goal I: halting CO2 growth, Goal II: reducing CO2s until 2030 and Goal III: near complete decarbonisation by 2075.
The Asian economic miracle can run into mega pollution from GHGs.I would undo the immense advances the recent decades.Solar panel parks is the reply, and not carbon capture.
i) Stall the rise if CO2s by 2020 (GOAL I); ii) Decreasing the CO2s by 30-40% by 2030 (GOAL II); iii) More or less full decarbonisation by around 2075 (GOAL III); iv) Decentralised implementation under international oversight, financial support and technical assistance.

Table 1 .
Number of Ouarzazate plants necessary in 2030 for COP21's GOAL II: (Note: Average of 250 -300 days of sunshine used for all entries except Australia, Indonesia, and Mexico, where 300 -350 was used).